It's not easy being a running back in today's NFL.

Or especially lucrative, as three of the league's best at the position found out Monday. NFL rushing king Josh Jacobs of the Las Vegas Raiders, Tony Pollard of the Dallas Cowboys and Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants all failed to reach long-term deals with their respective teams. All will now make $10.1 million in 2023—a number that would place them 31st in annual average salary among wide receivers.

That stat only serves to underscore a harsh truth in 2023—running backs may still have considerable value on the field, but when payday rolls around the position has been severely devalued.

That sets up what should be a fascinating offseason at the position next year. With Pollard, Barkley and Jacobs all playing on one-year deals, next year's free agent class contains the last four rushing champions. A fistful of Pro Bowlers. And talent galore.

What kind of cabbage will that loaded class reasonably be able to expect when free agency rolls around in 2024?

Here's an educated guess—and it ain't pretty.

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders

We might as well kick things off with the reigning NFL rushing champion—and a player who is no doubt unhappy after he and his team failed to reach agreement on a new contract Monday.

It's not a surprise that Josh Jacobs and the Las Vegas Raiders failed to reach a new deal—Jacobs was reportedly seeking $26-$32 million in guarantees, and it has become painfully obvious that NFL teams just aren't giving that kind of money to running backs. Not now.

The question now is what Jacobs does next. A training camp holdout is all but certain at this point. A trade demand is possible. Sitting out the 2023 season entirely can't be ruled out.

But the most likely scenario is that Jacobs eventually reports to the team and plays 2023 under the $10.1 million franchise tag. Say what you will about the fairness of that given the windfalls players like wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and tight end Evan Engram just got. But in terms of Jacobs' future earnings, it's the best play he has.

Jacobs has yet to turn 26, and he's coming off a year where he led the league with 1,653 rushing yards. The best-case for him is to stay healthy (which is hardly guaranteed after he posted almost 400 touches in 2022), post a season similar to last year and hope that a cash-flush team that feels one player away is willing to offer him a three-year deal with guarantees north of $20 million.

Projected Contract: Three years, $35.5 million, $22.5 million guaranteed